Professional Analysis Versus My Amateur Analysis Of Jack in the Box

This first link from MarketFolly contains the presentation from the winner of the Value Investors Congress contest whose presentation and analysis was a bull case for Jack in the Box.

The above analysis is actually the one I voted for in the contest as I thought it was the best, and the analysis he did in his article is actually what led me to research JACK as a possible investment for myself as he laid out a very good bull case for the company.

This second link is my analysis which is a bear case for Jack in the Box.

We came to the same conclusions about future possibility which he counts on more than I like to.  I generally only count in my analysis what I can see now and do not base my valuations on speculation of what could happen in the future.

Please feel free to leave comments on the two articles: Where I might have gone wrong, what I could have done better, etc.  I would really appreciate your thoughts.