The Next Warren Buffetts, Being Great At Anything, Beating The Show Offs, Bruce Bekowitz, and A Value Investors Journey

The day I published my Stanley Furniture article I actually found another company to research so that is that I have been doing over the weekend.  I am working my way through its annual report and will let you know if it turns out to be a company I will write an article on.  On to the links.

Are These The New Warren Buffetts? Is an article from Fortune in October of 1989 where they profile 12 investors who they expect to do well in the future.  It is amazing how accurate they were as the list is comprised of current value investing heavyweights.

Six Keys To Being Great At Anything is an article from Harvard Business Review on deliberate practice.  The article also lists some books at the end of the article about the subject.

Beating The Show-offs is an article from the Reformed Broker where he gives reasons why showing off when investing and/or managing other peoples money is bad, and how to beat the show-offs.

Bruce Berkowitz: Fairholme Can Produce 20% CAGR Returns is from ValueWalk which contains an interview with Bruce Berkowitz and has his thoughts on many things investing related, including some of his funds holdings.

The McValue Portfolio Newsletters are precursor quarterly newsletters from a fellow value investor before he decided to open his own investment fund GreensKeeper Asset Management. The second link contains his newsletters since opening his own fund.  Opening my own hedge fund/partnership is exactly what I plan to do when my health gets completely better so I really liked to see the progression of his newsletters and thought processes.

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New Blog, National Western Life Analysis, Stretching Yourself To Learn New Things, Notes From Meeting Value Investor Mohnish Pabrai, And CSInvesting News

After yesterdays detour and the help from your comments in the comments section, I will now get back to posting links.  A big thanks to all readers who helped out yesterday clarifying the situation, I really appreciate it.

The Red Corner Blog.  For those of you who might not know, Red has been very helpful to me in the past on Whopper Investments blog, and more recently on this site as well.  I recently found that he has his own blog where he analyzes and values companies.  His work is exceptional and I highly recommend that everyone visit his site, especially if you need help with the more technical aspect of evaluating companies, which is an area where I currently struggle.  He also answers a lot of questions from readers as well so make sure to read the comments on his writings as well.

Student of Value has come up with another great analysis piece, this time on National Western Life, as always highly recommended.

Stretching Yourself To Learn New Things is another great write up from Farnam Street.

Notes From Value Investor Mohnish Pabrai is from Perfect Research that contains Mr. Pabrai’s thoughts on a wide range of topics in investing.

I wanted to let everyone know who might be clicking on the CSinvesting links I have, that I got an email from John the other day after noticing that his site is down currently.  He said that he is currently in the process of moving his blog to a self hosted site, while also recovering from surgery.  Get well John, no need to rush back after major surgery.

I am still struggling to find another company to research and hope to find one soon.  I suspect that I am not alone in finding it hard to find companies to research since the market has been going up quite a bit?

Charlie Munger On Wordly Wisdom As It Relates To Business And Management

Over the next several days I will be posting links that I have been learning from over the last several weeks while I was researching and writing my Jack in the Box article that I think contain some insight.

I am also in the process of finishing up Moonwalking With Einstein and searching for another company to research and will update you when I find another company to look into.

This first article from Y Combinator is written by Charlie Munger and contains his thoughts on a wide assortment of things that he relates to his dealings in the business world: Psychology, valuation, how he and Buffett think about some of their investments, sports, math, specialization, and many other things.

I am going to post this article by itself because it is absolutely amazing and contains a myriad of insights and valuable knowledge in my opinion and it is pretty long.  I hope you enjoy.

Core Molding Technologies Valuations and Analysis

This is the entire article I have been working on which has been posted this morning to Valuefolio.com for his 50 Stocks in 100 Days Valuation series. I hope you enjoy all the new things I have added to my analysis and the amount of research I have done for this company.  Due to what I found out about Core Molding Technologies while researching, valuing, and analyzing them, CMT has become only the third companies stock I have bought in the past year along with Vivendi and Dole.  Let me know what you think about the article.

This is a guest post by Jason Rivera, founder of Value Investing Journey, a value investing blog. The tone of honesty and humility at his blog is refreshing. His quest for great stocks and as a value investor results in unique, authentic, high-quality content. In this article he values Core Molding Technologies as part of our 50 Stocks in 100 Days series. Follow Jason on twitter @JMRiv1986

For those of you who have not viewed my site and other analysis articles, I hope you enjoy my analysis and valuations, if not let me know where I am going wrong and what I could do better.  For those of you who have visited my site and have seen my valuations, I hope you like some of the tweaks I have made in my analysis.  I am now doing even more thorough research than I have been doing and I have incorporated some new things into my write ups as well, I hope you enjoy.

Core Molding Technologies (CMT) is going to be the subject of this article.  Core Molding Technologies is a manufacturer of fiberglass reinforced plastic products.  They supply products to companies in the medium and heavy trucking, automotive, marine, and other commercial industries.  The plastics are used in automobile hoods, air deflectors, air fairings, splash panels, engine covers, fenders, and bulkheads. They have five production facilities in: Columbus, Ohio; Batavia, Ohio; Gaffney, South Carolina; Warsaw, Kentucky; and Matamoros, Mexico.

Core Molding Technologies has about 90% of its current business coming from the medium and heavy trucking industry.  Sales to Paccar and Navistar make up about 75% of current sales as of the most recent quarter.  CMT has been slowly trying to increase sales to other companies, which I think is a good thing in the long term because if its relationship deteriorates with either of the above two companies CMT could be devastated.  CMT states that its current relationship with both Paccar and Navistar are good and that they work closely with both companies to solve any issue, work on research and development, and pricing.

As of this year’s proxy form, Navistar currently has a seat on CMT’s board of directors as it is owns 9.2% of CMT’s stock, so I do not see Navistar ending its relationship with CMT any time soon.  CMT insiders own around 16% of the company’s stock.  Mario Gabelli personally, and through his funds owns 14.1% of CMT’s stock.  Rutabaga Capital owns 9.5% of its stock.  Rutabaga is a private investment firm whose concentration is in “Undervalued, unloved companies.”

I always like to see high insider ownership, and I am happy that CMT is owned by a couple value oriented investment firms.  I was especially happy to see that Mario Gabelli is a big owner of CMT’s stock, especially since he has bought shares in the company with his own money.  I also really like the ownership by Navistar as that could lead to a potential buy out, or at the very least a continued partnership between the two companies.  I am going to be watching very closely to see if and when any of the above start selling CMT’s stock as that could be a sign that there are big problems ahead for the company.

Here are some quotes from two of CMT’s biggest buyers about the potential huge catalyst in CMT’s main area of operations, the trucking industry:

  • From Paccar, “Over six million heavy duty trucks operate in North America and Europe, and the average age of North American vehicles is estimated to be seven years. The large vehicle parc and aging industry fleet create excellent demand for parts and service and moderate the cyclicality of truck sales.”
  • From Navistar “For our Truck segment, we expect benefits from further improvements in our “traditional” volumes as the industry continues to increase from the historic lows experienced in 2009 and 2010. According to ACT Research, the average age of the truck fleet was 6.7 years at the beginning of 2011, which is the highest average age since 1979. We anticipate higher sales in 2012 for truck replacement as our customers refresh aging fleets. We also expect demand for trucks to increase as freight volumes and rates continue to improve as the economy recovers. In addition to increased demand, we expect to further benefit from improved revenues and margins associated with the exclusive use of our proprietary engines. We expect to realize benefits from plant optimization actions taken during the trough of the truck cycle. Finally, we anticipate positive contributions from business acquisitions and investments made during this period.”

The above is exceptional news and should serve as a catalyst for CMT.

These valuations were done by me, using my estimates, and are not a recommendation to buy any stock, in any of the companies mentioned.  Do your own homework.

All numbers are in millions of US dollars, except per share information, unless otherwise noted.  Valuations were done using 2011 10K and second quarter 2012 10Q.

Asset Reproduction Valuation

Assets: Book Value: Reproduction Value:
Current Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents 0 0
Accounts Receivable (Net) 26.3 20
Inventories 12.6 6
Deferred Tax Asset 1.8 0
Other Current Assets 2.8 0
Total Current Assets 43.5 26
PP&E Net 51.9 25
Deferred Tax Asset 1.1 0
Goodwill 1.1 0
Total Assets 97.6 51

 

I am using the companies fully diluted share count of 7.4.

  • 51/7.4=$6.89 per share.

EBIT and Net Cash Valuation

Cash and cash equivalents are 0

Short term investments are 0

Total current liabilities are 27

Cash and cash equivalents + short-term investments – total current liabilities=0+0-27=-27

  • -27/7.4=-$3.65 in net cash per share.

CMT has a trailing twelve month unadjusted EBIT of 16.5.

5X, 8X, 11X, and 14X EBIT + cash and cash equivalents + short-term investments:

  • 5X16.5=82.5
  • 8X16.5=132
  • 11X16.5=181.5
  • 14X16.5=231
  • 5X=82.5/7.4=$11.15 per share.
  • 8X=132/7.4=$17.84 per share.
  • 11X=181.5/7.4=$24.53 per share.
  • 14X=231/7.4=$31.22 per share.

Since CMT has had a record trailing twelve months in terms of EBIT, I have decided to normalize EBIT and taken the 10 year average of 8.2 to determine the more normalized intrinsic value of CMT in case it is not able to keep up the pace of the past year.

  • 5X8.2=41
  • 8X8.2=65.6
  • 11X8.2=90.2
  • 14X8.2=114.8
  • 5X=41/7.4=$5.54 per share.
  • 8X=65.6/7.4=$8.86 per share.
  • 11X=90.2/7.4=$12.19 per share.
  • 14X=114.8/7.4=$15.51 per share.

Revenue and EBIT valuation

I am again using trailing twelve month numbers.

Numbers:
Revenue: 168
Multiplied By:
Average 10 year EBIT %: 6.69%
Equals:
Estimated EBIT of: 11.24
Multiplied By:
Assumed Fair Value Multiple of EBIT:                 8X
Equals:
Estimated Fair Enterprise Value of CMT: 89.92
Plus:
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short Term Investments: 0
Minus:
Total Debt: 13
Equals:
Estimated Fair Value of Common Equity: 76.92
Divided By:
Number of Shares: 7.4
Equals: $10.39 per share.

 

My low estimate of value using a 5X EBIT multiple was $5.84 per share.  My high estimate of value using an 11X EBIT multiple was $14.95 per share.

Price to Book and Tangible Book Valuation

Numbers:
Book Value: 53.13
Minus:
Intangibles: 2.2
Equals:
Tangible Book Value: 50.93
Multiplied By:
Industry P/B: 2.2
Equals:
Industry Multiple Implied Fair Value: 112.05
Multiplied By:
Assumed Multiple as a Percentage of Industry Multiple: 95%
Equals:
Estimated Fair Value of Common Equity: 106.45
Divided By:
Number of Shares: 7.4
Equals: $14.39 per share

 

My low estimate of value using 75% of industry multiple was $11.36 per share.  My high estimate using 125% of industry multiple was $18.93 per share.

Ratios

Ratios
Current Assets to Current Liabilities: 1.59
Total Debt to Equity: 23.60%
Total Debt to Total Assets: 12.30%
ROIC 10 yr avg From Morningstar: 10.62%
Unadjusted ROIC TTM : 24.60%
Normalized ROIC: 12.23%
Cash Conversion Cycle TTM: 54.47
Unadjusted EV/EBIT: 3.93
Normalized EV/EBIT: 8
ROE 10 yr avg: 15.73%
ROETTM: 21.10%
ROA 10 yr avg: 6.56%
ROA TTM: 11.49%
COGS as a % of revenue 10 yr avg: 83.36%
COGS as a % of revenue 2011: 79.16%

 

My Interpretation of the Ratios:

  • I do not see any current problems with CMT’s debt levels.
  • CMT’s ROIC is incredible, even if they fall back to the more normalized levels of above 10%.  If CMT can keep up the level of the previous year this company is very undervalued.
  • The cash conversion cycle is a measure of how fast a company can turn its inventories into cash.  In CMT’s case it takes them about 54.5 days to make the conversion.  The number is lower than the high of about 73 in 2009, but not back to pre recession levels which were around 42 on average.  I do not see a major problem here but would like to see the number creep down over time.
  • If CMT can keep its current revenue and profit levels going then they appear to be massively undervalued on an EV/EBIT basis.  If they revert back to the 10 year average EBIT then they appear to be about fairly valued on that basis.
  • ROE and ROA appear to be boosted recently in comparison to the 10 year average in part due to Cost of Goods Sold decreasing as a percentage of revenue.  Hopefully they can keep up that pace as well.

Competitors

The competitors that CMT lists in its annual and quarterly reports are as follows: Sigma Industries, Decoma Composites (an owned subsidiary of Magna International), Molded Fiber Glass Companies, and Continental Structural Plastics.  Here are my thoughts on each competitor after doing research on them.

  • Sigma Industries has operations in various industries including the heavy trucking industry, where CMT gets most of its sales from currently.  Sigma’s operations are mainly in Canada currently so it appears not be too much competition for CMT at this time.
  • Magna International (MGA) is one of the largest and most diversified auto parts suppliers in the world.  I was a bit worried about the competition from Magna towards CMT, but the company currently does not make sales in the medium and heavy trucking segment.  Magna’s main operations are in cars and light trucks at this time.  Magna does state in its 10K that they are always looking for opportunities in various arenas including the heavy trucking industry, Magna’s entry into the heavy trucking industry would be something to watch out for. I think that Magna buying out CMT would be a better option because currently CMT has a market cap of around $50 million and Magna’s is $10.4 billion, meaning it would be a very minimal monetary investment and would also save them time from having to learn the processes by themselves.
  • Molded Fiber Glass Companies is a privately held company whose operations appear to be mostly in the automotive and wind energy arena.  The little Molded Fiber Glass does in the trucking industry does not appear to be in direct competition with CMT as its operations are in entirely different states and regions.
  • Continental Structural Plastics is a privately held company who has operations in automotive, heavy truck, agricultural, HVAC, construction, and material sales.  The following is the best information I could find on Continental “Continental Structural Plastics, Inc. manufactures structural plastic components, bumper beam reinforcements, rocker covers, oil pans, stamped steel seat frames, and underbody shields. It also offers composite seat bases, engine oil sumps, and composite sunshade substrates; and moulders of glass-mat thermoplastic composites, as well as long-glass-fibre-reinforced thermoplastic and direct-LFT composites. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Troy, Michigan with manufacturing plants in Petoskey, Michigan; and Sarepta, Louisiana.”  Again, CSP does not appear to be a direct competitor in to CMT as they appear to make different products.

After looking into CMT’s competitors it appears that it does not have a direct competitor at this time and that it has found a very profitable niche which also might come with some minor competitive advantages.

Pros

  • Undervalued by almost every one of my estimates of intrinsic value.
  • I have not found any major direct competitors in CMT’s main area of operations.
  • The company has found a niche in its industry that has made them very profitable.
  • The company’s margins have been consistently good to great over the last 10 years: ROIC 10% average over that time period for example.
  • Even if CMT is not able to keep up the pace of the previous year in terms of revenue and margins and reverts back to its 10 year averages, the company has been profitable over that time, even during the recent recession.
  • Navistar, who is CMT’s biggest customer, owns about 9% of the company.  CMT insiders, outside value investment firms including Mario Gabelli personally, and through his funds, own over 30% of the company.
  • By my estimation, the company looks like a potential buy out candidate.
  • The company has been becoming more efficient in its operations in recent years.

Cons

  • The vast majority of CMT’s sales are to only two companies, and they would be devastated if its relationship with either of the two companies deteriorates.
  • CMT is a very small company whose market cap is currently only around $50 million.
  • CMT could be hurt if a bigger, better financed, company enters its industry.
  • On a revenue and margins level, CMT has had a record past year which might not continue into the future.
  • If the past holds true, CMT’s results will be hurt quite a bit by any kind of recession or down turn in the economy.
  • CMT has very low average trading volume of around 15,000, so it could experience wild swings in price.

Potential Catalysts

  • The trucking industry currently has the highest average age of trucks since 1979 which should lead to sustained sales and margin growth.  The high age of the current trucking fleet should at least partially protect CMT’s revenues and margins if there is some new recession, as you can only hold off buying a new truck for so many years and many companies held off buying trucks during the recent recession.
  • In my opinion CMT would be a great buyout candidate for someone like Magna who would be interested in entering the medium and heavy trucking industry as that would be less of a money and time investment for any potential buyer.
  • Navistar who already owns more than 9% of the company also could be a potential buyer.

Conclusion

With all of the above stated I will be using my trailing twelve month unadjusted 5X EBIT estimate of intrinsic value of $11.15 per share.  The reason I am using this estimate of value is that by my estimation CMT should be able to at least partially sustain the previous year’s record revenue and margin numbers.  The 5X EBIT estimate is also conservative enough that it leaves a margin of safety if CMT were to revert back to previous year’s revenue and margins.

I actually think that CMT should be valued at one of my higher estimates of value due to the steadiness of its margins over the past decade and some of the other factors listed above, but I chose this estimate of intrinsic value due to the company’s small size and some of the other risks listed above, just to be safe.

The current share price is $7.35 which gets me a margin of safety of about 35%, reaching my minimum threshold of 30%.

Due to the previous, and for the reasons I listed throughout my article, I have decided to buy into CMT, making it only the third company I have bought this year along with Vivendi and Dole.

If you liked this analysis please visit my value investing blog Value Investing Journey and follow me on Twitter @JMRiv1986.  As always your comments, critique, and criticism are welcome.  Let me know what you think I could do better, where I might have gone wrong, and what you liked about the analysis.

Last minute update as I am getting ready to publish.  Navistar’s CEO of 30+ years has stepped down effective immediately.  This situation is something I am going to watch very closely, but with the information that is currently available I still have decided to buy into CMT at this time.  Hopefully this situation will not affect Navistar’s relationship with CMT.

Request from ValueFolio and Buying Into a New Company

Sorry for the lack of posts in the past few days. While I was researching the new company I just bought into, I got a request from Daniel of ValueFolio.com asking if I would write an article for his 50 Stocks In 100 Days Deliberate Practice series and of course I accepted.

The article will hopefully be published later today and I will share it with you at that time.

I hope you enjoy the analysis and valuation article as I think it is my best thus far.  I have added some new things, done far more research than I have been doing, and I think it has paid off in a much better analysis.

The analysis, and what I found out about the company while researching it, has led me to buy into the company, making it only the third company I have bought in the past year along with Vivendi and Dole.

I cannot wait to share it with you and I hope you enjoy it.

Moats, Clarity, Success, and Ego Depletion

While I am still working my way through The Investment Checklist I wanted to post some more links.  The book has so far been fantastic and I have found many more things to think about when learning about a new company.  I have already found revisions that I need to make to my plan for deliberate practice that I wrote about last week, and once I finish reading the book I will post them.  Now to the links.

5 Ways to Identify Wide Economic Moats is an article from Old School Investing, written by Daniel Sparks of ValueFolio, that talks about why economic moats and sustainable competitive advantages are so important, and gives you some ways to help spot them.

6 Simple Tactics to Regain Clarity is an article from pickthebrain.com  that gives you six tips to help regain your focus and get back on track to attaining your goals.

Why Success Breeds Success: The Science of “The Winner Effect” is an article from brainpickings.org on why winners continue to win and losers continue to lose, and the effect that both have on your brain and body functions.

Understanding the Dangers of “Ego-Depletion” is a fantastic article from fourhourworkweek.com that is about how to stop wasting your valuable brain functioning power on unimportant decisions so that you are more prepared and better able to make an important decision when the time arises.

Now back to reading, I hope you enjoy the links.

Dole update, some links, and my plans

Dole

I was planning on doing an entire write up on my thoughts on Dole now that it is up almost 50% since I wrote my articles on it and its competitors, but these two links from the Motley Fool and Seeking Alpha respectively, do a good job of talking about most of what I was going to.  Why is This Insider Buying Shares of Dole?  Top Insider Buys Filed on August 15th.

I wonder what Mr. Murdock knows or expects to happen?  Since July 24th he has bought almost 5 million additional shares and he now controls just fewer than 62% of the company.  I wonder if he is thinking about taking the company private again or if he knows or expects a spin off or asset sale to happen.

In any event, it is usually a good sign to see an insider buying this amount of stock before the company is expected to announce some kind of plan to enhance the value of the company.

In my opinion Dole is still undervalued but it has come a lot closer to my estimate of intrinsic value. The almost 50% appreciation in stock price thus far has come on almost zero news, so I am excited to see what kind of price movement happens when and if Dole announces some kind of spin off or asset sale. The following are the links to my four articles detailing Dole, Chiquita, Fresh Del Monte, and my concluding thoughts: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4.

Links

From Farnam Street Blog, @farnamstreet on Twitter who I would highly recommend following, they give some quotes on learning.

From Psychology Today, and tweeted by @favillapsych who I would also recommend following, they give you examples of how geniuses think and how to improve your thinking.  I especially like this portion of the article, which I think is very applicable to the investment world, quoting from the article:

GENIUSES PRODUCE.

A distinguishing characteristic of genius is immense productivity. Thomas Edison held 1,093 patents, still the record. He guaranteed productivity by giving himself and his assistants idea quotas. His own personal quota was one minor invention every 10 days and a major invention every six months. Bach wrote a cantata every week, even when he was sick or exhausted. Mozart produced more than six hundred pieces of music. Einstein is best known for his paper on relativity, but he published 248 other papers. T. S. Elliot’s numerous drafts of “The Waste Land” constitute a jumble of good and bad passages that eventually was turned into a masterpiece. In a study of 2,036 scientists throughout history, Dean Kean Simonton of the University of California, Davis found that the most respected produced not only great works, but also more “bad” ones. Out of their massive quantity of work came quality. Geniuses produce. Period.

From Deloitte, The Persistence Project and its associated articles.  Some of the links are pretty dry, and while I do not necessarily agree with everything they put forward I do think the articles contain some very good information about what makes certain companies great in comparison to others.  Quoting from the site:

Discovering the causes of superior corporate performance

Trying to understand what makes great companies great is the defining quest of popular management research. Sadly, like the quests of great literature – from the grail to the fleece – the search seems endless. Even the most famous and influential efforts at uncovering the causes of enduring success have of late been knocked off their pedestals, and often for good reason. Why should we bother even to try?

Well, if George Mallory wanted to climb Everest because it was there, then, following Thomas Berger, we determined to try our hand at the recipe for persistent superior performance precisely because it isn’t there.

To make any progress, we recognize we’ll have to try a different approach. We’ve begun with advances in statistical techniques to define a unique sample. You can read more about that in our monograph, A Random Search for Excellence.

 

My Plans

I was planning to get right into my 2 week plan that I outlined here a couple days ago, but since my internet was out yesterday I decided to start The Investment Checklist.  On top of hearing that this book is fantastic, I hope it helps me refine my checklists and also helps me figure out a way to more efficiently maximize my research and analysis time.

After I get done reading I will officially start my version of deliberate practice that I talked about the other day.

 

My Plan for Deliberate Practice, fixing a problem, and free books

I first mentioned a problem I have been having about how to budget my time in this post at the beginning of August.

I have been doing a lot of thinking and reading lately and I wanted to share my thoughts here to see if anyone has any input.

After my post on Aceto, which is now an article on Seeking Alpha for those who want to follow the discussion in the comments section, I went straight into evaluating another company.  It has been my first time in truly trying to evaluate a bank, and about half way through its annual report, I quickly realized that I did not know enough about banks or the banking industry to fully evaluate its prospects properly.

I finished up reading its most recent annual and quarterly reports, did a P/B valuation where I found the company to be fairly priced, and was going to do a full valuation and analysis write up like I have been doing. However, my evaluation up to this point is pretty poor, and I realized I need to learn more about banks and the banking industry before I do the write up.

I have been seeing a lot of sites lately talking about deliberate practice and how to constantly get better, and I have been trying to figure out how best to personally accomplish my goals, and here is what I have come up with so far.

My Plan For Deliberate Practice and How to Fix My Time Budgeting Problem

Here are my ideas so far.

  1. I look at multiple companies as potential investment ideas on a daily basis, but I am fully committing myself to completely evaluating at least one new company every two weeks.  By fully evaluating I mean researching the company and its competitors, valuing the companies, evaluating its investment potential at this time, and writing an article about the company.  I think this will help me become a better investor on several levels: Thinking about and bettering my investment process, becoming better at putting my ideas into writing, better and more thorough investment write ups, and this will enable me to learn more about new industries and companies. Originally I wanted to fully evaluate a new company every week but that left little time for learning new things, which gets me to my second idea.
  2. I have known for a while now that I have a lot to learn still but after my foray into the banking industry, I realized I needed to set up some more time where I would specifically be learning, instead of trying to write an article or research another company.  The remainder of the two week period after I have finished up my article(s), I will spend learning: New techniques, new industries, reading books, finding better ways to think, etc.
  3. While I am researching and learning, I will again be posting more links that I think we all could learn from.
  4. I would also really encourage you the readers to post some ideas on The Readers Investment Ideas and Analysis Page.  If you are not comfortable doing an entire write up, I would be fine with your stating which company you have researched and giving a few points on why they are a buy or sell at this time in your opinion.  Again, I do not care if you are a beginner or have advanced knowledge, all ideas are welcome.  Also the free book giveaway is still in tact so the first person to put an idea on the page will receive a free book from my collection, and I will also continue to give free books away to other investment ideas that are put on the page as well. That page is also for any questions anyone might have.  I want us to all learn from each other, and since I am relatively new to investing I hope some of the more experienced viewers give some of their advice.
  5. I am giving you my email here as well if you would like to contact me for any reason.  I would be extremely excited to meet new people and discuss ideas or address any questions you might have in the privacy of email if you are not comfortable posting them on the site.  JMRiv1986@gmail.com

So far these are my ideas and I would like to hear your feedback on them.  I will be adding to, and tweaking the list periodically when I come across something that I think will help this process.  I will stick to the time frame as best as I possibly can, but will allow for some flexibility if some kind of issue, good or bad arises.

I am excited to see what kind of feedback I get as lately I have felt that my investment process has been lacking something that I cannot quite put my finger on.  I do feel that I have been getting better with every article I write and I am hopeful that I will find whatever it is that I think I am missing though my version of deliberate practice.

In the meantime I cannot wait to hear from you and to discuss your ideas and thoughts.

@ValueFolio deliberate practice

Over at www.ValueFolio.com they are going to be valuing 50 stocks in 100 days and you have the chance to pick some of the companies.  Follow this link to see the page.  Should be pretty instructive as they put out some very good work.

Also make sure to follow them on Facebook, and Twitter @ValueFolio for updates if you like what they are offering.
Enjoy

Deliberate Practice, Slackers, and The Real Crash dead ahead

Deliberate Practice

This article from http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/ talks about the importance and need for deliberate practice if you want to master something.  It also talks about the difference between playing around, which is what most of us do when we practice, and the work it takes to get incrementally better.  This is a very important subject for anyone who wants to improve any aspect of their lives.

Slackers

This is a part of an article written by Malcolm Gladwell talking about what holds us all back from becoming what we could become. If you are a subscriber to The New Yorker you can view the whole article.

The Real Crash Dead Ahead

This is an article from Marketwatch where the author gives his opinions on why he thinks another major economic crash is coming very soon.  The author says the coming recession is going to be worse than the recent recession.